Automakers expect China sales to grow 5% to 10% in 2013
Automakers in China are bracing for another year of single-digit growth in 2013, weighed down by sluggish demand for Japanese cars amid a diplomatic row between the two regional neighbors and government measures intended to restrict traffic in bigger cities.
Executives at domestic and foreign carmakers in China predict the overall vehicle market will grow 5 to 10 percent this year, roughly in line with 2012, when demand was hit by a slowing economy and rising fuel costs.
Japanese carmakers likely will continue to struggle in 2013 after they saw their China sales plunge by half after anti-Japanese protests and boycotts of Japanese goods broke out in mid-September over a territorial dispute between the two governments.
"Japanese brands have been handicapped by the turmoil in the relationship between Japan and China, said Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan Motor Co., during a year-end press briefing in Tokyo.
"Obviously, the impact [of anti-Japan consumer sentiment] is reducing, (but) it's still significant," Ghosn added. "Will it go ever to zero? I don't know."
Ghosn also predicted that industry sales in China would grow at a similar pace to 2012.
John Lawler, chairman and CEO of Ford Motor's China operations, has forecast industry sales growth of 5 to 10 percent, while Bob Socia, head of General Motors' China division, has said it is likely to grow 5 to 8 percent.
During the first 11 months of 2012, overall vehicle sales rose 4 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. December has traditionally been a strong month for sales, so analysts predict growth for the whole of 2012 will likely be 5 to 6 percent.
The market grew 46 percent in 2009 and 32 percent in 2010, thanks mainly to government incentives that expired at the end of 2010. Growth fell to just 2.5 percent in 2011.
Adding to the sluggish performance of the Japanese manufacturers, further initiatives by local governments to restrict car sales to ease traffic gridlock is likely to weigh on the overall market.
Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Guiyang in southwestern China have cut the number of license plates they issue. In Guangzhou, the measure, which was introduced in August, will cut annual vehicle sales by a third.
"Even a small city like Guiyang did it, so I won't be surprised if other cities follow suit sooner or later," said John Zeng, Asia Pacific director for industry consultancy LMC Automotive.
Despite some headwinds, Zeng forecast passenger car sales to grow 10 percent in 2013, up from 8 percent in the first 11 months of 2012. He says if it were not for the struggles of the Japanese makers, the market could grow as much as 13 percent.
Optimists argue that in addition to a recovering economy and pent-up auto demand in inland cities, China's new top leadership could introduce stimulus measures to spur domestic consumption that would help boost auto demand.
"There are reasons for such optimism. Whatever the market ends up with this year, I do expect an improvement of 3 to 5 percent above that," said Bill Russo, a senior adviser at Booz & Co.
Japanese carmakers likely will continue to struggle in 2013 after they saw their China sales plunge by half after anti-Japanese protests and boycotts of Japanese goods broke out in mid-September over a territorial dispute between the two governments.
"Japanese brands have been handicapped by the turmoil in the relationship between Japan and China, said Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan Motor Co., during a year-end press briefing in Tokyo.
"Obviously, the impact [of anti-Japan consumer sentiment] is reducing, (but) it's still significant," Ghosn added. "Will it go ever to zero? I don't know."
Ghosn also predicted that industry sales in China would grow at a similar pace to 2012.
John Lawler, chairman and CEO of Ford Motor's China operations, has forecast industry sales growth of 5 to 10 percent, while Bob Socia, head of General Motors' China division, has said it is likely to grow 5 to 8 percent.
During the first 11 months of 2012, overall vehicle sales rose 4 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. December has traditionally been a strong month for sales, so analysts predict growth for the whole of 2012 will likely be 5 to 6 percent.
The market grew 46 percent in 2009 and 32 percent in 2010, thanks mainly to government incentives that expired at the end of 2010. Growth fell to just 2.5 percent in 2011.
Adding to the sluggish performance of the Japanese manufacturers, further initiatives by local governments to restrict car sales to ease traffic gridlock is likely to weigh on the overall market.
Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Guiyang in southwestern China have cut the number of license plates they issue. In Guangzhou, the measure, which was introduced in August, will cut annual vehicle sales by a third.
"Even a small city like Guiyang did it, so I won't be surprised if other cities follow suit sooner or later," said John Zeng, Asia Pacific director for industry consultancy LMC Automotive.
Despite some headwinds, Zeng forecast passenger car sales to grow 10 percent in 2013, up from 8 percent in the first 11 months of 2012. He says if it were not for the struggles of the Japanese makers, the market could grow as much as 13 percent.
Optimists argue that in addition to a recovering economy and pent-up auto demand in inland cities, China's new top leadership could introduce stimulus measures to spur domestic consumption that would help boost auto demand.
"There are reasons for such optimism. Whatever the market ends up with this year, I do expect an improvement of 3 to 5 percent above that," said Bill Russo, a senior adviser at Booz & Co.
